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Answer :
Final answer:
The expected value of the project delays is 4.9 days, calculated by multiplying each delay duration by its probability and summing the results.
Explanation:
The question provided asks for the expected value of project delays given certain probabilities and durations of those delays. To calculate the expected value of these risks, we multiply each delay by its corresponding probability, and then sum the results.
The first risk is a 20 percent probability (0.20) of a 14-day delay, and the second risk is a 10 percent probability (0.10) of a 21-day delay. Following the formula for expected value, we would calculate:
- (0.20 * 14 days) + (0.10 * 21 days)
- (2.8 days) + (2.1 days)
- 4.9 days
Hence, the expected value of the delays is 4.9 days. This means that on average, the project can be expected to be delayed by about 4.9 days due to these risks. This is a project management calculation widely used in risk analysis and planning.
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